Each March I sit around and look at NCAA Tournament brackets and try to figure out why the committee has so many jacked up seeds, then each winter whenever trying to seed holiday tournaments I remember why; seeding is not easy. Everything is relative and there is no exact science to evaluating to teams that have not played each other and in many cases have zero common opponents. Basically, you can seed based on how good a team is or based on its resume, but you can’t really do both.
I will apologize in advance for the seeds. The meeting isn’t until Dec. 15, but I can promise you that there will be some unhappy teams. This is the deepest field in the history of the event and there are going to be some low seeds and unseeded teams that are going to be really quality and capable of making a run.
But, that should also make for one of the best events you’ll see all year and don’t be shocked if there is at least three state champions in the field.
Here’s how I see the seeds playing out.
*NOTE* This pending Monday’s results. There are some huge games Monday that will help determine seeds:
Republic at Waynesville
Aurora at Parkview
West Plains at Salem
Mount Vernon at Fair Grove
My projected seeds:
Crane 1. Kickapoo
North Little Rock 2. Fort Smith Northside
Columbia Rock Bridge 3. Pickerington Central
Republic 4. Branson
Fair Grove 5. Strafford
Skyline 6. West Plains
Camdenton 7. Nixa
Purdy 8. Aurora
Seeds 1-4
This is pretty clear cut with Crane, Kickapoo and Republic being the three best teams in the Ozarks and Branson also being in the conversation. Crane clearly has the best body of work and how can you argue with 98-6 over the last three years as well as wins over Class 3 No. 1 Strafford and Class 5 No. 1 Kickapoo. The discussion exists between Kickapoo and Republic, with Branson being in the conversation. All three of which took turns beating each other last year and are even more talented this year. Republic is the lone unbeaten, but the only reason Kickapoo isn’t is because they had to play Crane and Branson lost to Carl Junction, which may be the best Class 4 team in Missouri. I lean towards Kickapoo as a No. 1 seed for two reasons and it’s less about basketball than matchups. First, Kickapoo has the most talented roster top to bottom in Missouri. The Lady Chiefs have an abundance of talent and more than enough to win a state championship; at least a half dozen players that will suit up collegiately at some level. Secondly, Kickapoo, Republic and Branson are all in Class 5 and play each other in the regular season. To be honest, I selfishly don’t want to see them play again. Kickapoo and Republic play next week and watching them run it back less than two weeks later isn’t something I’m about, especially since we will likely see it again in March. With this set up we get the dream Crane/Republic matchup, as well as a likely district championship preview between Kickapoo and Branson. They meet in the regular season, but not until the end of January. Republic’s win over Kirkwood is one of the most quality wins that anyone of these teams has. Considering it came with two returning lettermen out it’s even more impressive. Republic and Crane haven’t met since 2012, a 20-point Lady Tiger win, and this is the last chance we will have to see them play. When looking at the out of area teams, it creates intriguing storylines should the seeds hold. I’ll explain why in next week’s Pink and White Lady Classic Preview.
Seeds 5-8
This is where I had the most trouble because of the depth of these teams. Keep in mind I don’t have Hillcrest or Bolivar, two Final Four teams from last year, receiving seeds, as well as Buffalo and Stockton. I have Fair Grove and Strafford, two Class 3 teams, on the 5-line. Both are state-ranked and have been impressive with stellar wins. Strafford’s lone loss came to Crane, which is why the Lady Indians get the No. 5 on Kickapoo’s side so we avoid that rematch. Fair Grove owns wins over West Plains and Houston with its lone loss coming to Lebanon because Mizzou commit Kelsey Winfrey went off for 29 points. Plus, can you imagine the potential Mid-Lakes vs. COC Large match-ups in two separate quarterfinal games with a chance to take on the No. 1 team in the state? Skyline and West Plains are on the 6-line even though both will compete for state championships. The reason they fall are because of early losses to Camdenton and Fair Grove respectively. It could be unfortunate for the two out of area No. 3 seeds because of how good these two teams are; they will put anyone on upset alert. The same is true on the 7-line because of Camdenton and Aurora. Camdenton got blasted by Republic early, but has bounced back with a string of wins, including one over Skyline that has made the Lady Lakers’ early resume. Aurora is unbeaten and Emily Parker, who broke the 1,000-point barrier earlier this season, has been solid early and the win over Nixa looks better each week. The 8-line with Purdy and Nixa is extremely intriguing. Purdy is undefeated and has one of the most balanced rosters in the Ozarks with four players averaging double figures. Nixa is coming off of an impressive run at the Stephanie Phillips Classic, including a win over a good Jefferson City team. The Lady Eagles lost four starters and have a ton of new faces but having one of the best coaches (Jenny Perryman) and best guards (Shelby Ewing) has the Lady Eagles playing well much earlier than anticipated.
*Remember, this is just how I believe the seeds will be broken down. The actual bracket won’t be released until Tuesday afternoon*
