While the Class 1-3 teams were under the spotlight this week, the big schools get their turn in district tournaments next week.
There are no shortages of storylines or things to watch in our local Class 4 and 5 district tournaments.
Will we see another Kickapoo-Nixa sectional? Has Republic come back to earth over the last two weeks?
Is there a Hillcrest-like run looming for an under-the-radar Class 4 District 11 team? Could a Joplin-area school (Webb City, McDonald Co.) throw a wrench into those plans?
How does the recent discovery of gravitational waves play into all of this?!
I don’t know the answer to that last question, but I’ll try to answer some of the previous ones, and more, below.
Class 4 District 11 @ Rogersville High School
Synopsis: Since the 2009-10 season, this has been the district of future state finalists. In that time span (six seasons), the winner of this district has gone on to play in Columbia five times. Furthermore, the winner of this district has gone on to play in the Class 4 title game four consecutive times: Hillcrest in 2012, Republic in 2013 and 2014, and Hillcrest in 2015. Can the streak continue this year? All six teams in this district have at least seven losses, so things appear to be pretty wide open. No. 1 seed Glendale, which beat Rogersville by nine and Hillcrest by 32 in the regular season, is seeking its first district championship since 2006. Sophomores Monty Johal (25.5 ppg) and Jordan Walton (15 ppg) combine for nearly 40 points per game to lead the Falcons.
1. Darkhorse Wildcats. You can probably get pretty good odds placing money on Rogersville to win this district. And it wouldn’t be an awful bet to make. For a 10-14 team, the Wildcats would be a tough semifinals draw for a Glendale team that’s been up and down at times. Similar to Hillcrest last year, Rogersville has a star player (Christian Brown, 20 ppg) capable of getting hot and stringing together some 30-point games. Rogersville, plagued by injuries and a tough Blue and Gold draw, was 2-9 in early January after losing to Willard. The Wildcats have played much better since then and have notable wins of Branson and Republic (who played for the COC-Large title Tuesday night) and played Ozark and Nixa to competitive losses. Rogersville isn’t your typical sub-500 team. Marcus Gorman (7 ppg, 5.5 assists per game) and Matt McHenry (8 ppg, 3 apg) form a solid backcourt. Rogersville’s first task comes in the quarterfinals against Hillcrest. The Hornets have a legitimate chance to spoil a potential Rogersville district run. Hillcrest’s notable games include wins over Aurora and Webb City, and a three-point loss to Helias Catholic.
2. Howlin’ Houn’ Dawgs. As of Feb. 23, Aurora had four more wins than the top two seeds in this district (West Plains, Glendale), but finds itself as the 3-seed. Does Aurora have a legitimate claim of conference bias here? Not quite. The Houn’s lost to West Plains and Hillcrest during the regular season, and honestly the Big 8 is a couple notches below the Ozark Conference in basketball. Aurora’s best wins were over Class 3 teams Clever and Fair Grove. Aurora’s best asset, in this tournament, is its frontline size. Forwards Austin Carmichael (13 ppg, 8 rpg) and Logan Bader (17 ppg, 8 rpg) are big, capable scorers. Carmichael’s made 40 pointers and is shooting 41 percent from the perimeter. Aurora beat first-round opponent Reeds Spring by 32 in the regular season and lost to West Plains by just four in the Blue and Gold, so a Houn’ Dawgs district title run isn’t inconceivable here. Aurora enters this tournament with close losses to Lamar and McDonald County in its last two games.
3. Feel the Ziz. Another team that you could talk yourself into winning this district is West Plains, which played Glendale, Bolivar and Rolla to close losses on the road. West Plains is led by an athletic, three-headed attack of Christian Robbins (17.1 ppg, 5 rpg), Chase Riley (14 ppg, 6 rpg) and Zak Adkisson (13.8 ppg, 4.7 rpg). The trio, who between them combine for nearly 8 steals per game, are all capable of defending multiple positions and provide great “length” for the Zizzers. West Plains also owns victories over Hillcrest, Rogersville (twice) and Aurora this season.
Class 4 District 12 @ Carthage High School
Synopsis: One of the area’s most improved teams this year goes for its first district title since winning seven straight from 2003-09. That team, Webb City, was 11-15 last season but enters this tournament as the No. 1 seed and 19-6 overall. Webb City has wins over Carl Junction and Monett, and trounced potential semifinals opponent Carthage by 31 recently. Webb City beat No. 2 seed McDonald County 48-46 at home in mid-January, so we could have a competitive finals if we get that rematch.
1. Cardinal Way. So, what’s sparked Webb City’s turnaround under first-year coach Jeff Guiot? Having three guys over 6’4” and a productive point guard certainly helps. Between 6’4” swingman Tate Smith, 6’7” forward Zach Davidson and 6’8” center Preston Ellis, the Cardinals are one of the biggest teams in the area. Ellis averages around 11 points, 6 rebounds and 3 blocks per game. Davidson goes for about 12 and 7 a night, while Smith (7 ppg, 4 rpg) serves as the team’s top defender. Point guard Payton Guiot is a transfer from Bolivar, where father/Webb City coach Jeff Guiot formerly was at the helm at SBU. Payton’s averaging 12 points and 7 assists per game this season. If you think Webb City’s just collected wins over soft, Joplin-area schools this year, think again. The Cardinals beat Ozark and Nixa at home this season and Jeff City in a neutral-site game.
2. M&M. As in, Monett and McDonald Co. The No. 3 seed has won this district three of the past four seasons, so we have to consider the possibilities of an upset. This year’s 3-seed is Monett, who faces a 2-20 Carl Junction team in the opening round. Senior guard Logan Coones averages 19 points per game for the Cubs and shoots nearly 40 percent on 3-point attempts and 80 percent at the free throw line. Jonah Paszek (11.6 ppg) and Kobe Besch (10.7 ppg) give the Cubs three players in double figures. Assuming Monett can again beat a Carl Junction team it beat 47-30 in late January, the Cubs would draw No. 2 seed McDonald County in the semifinals. McDonald County won the official Big 8 meeting, 61-33 at home, in mid-January after Monett won an early season matchup 57-54 at the Carthage Invitational in early December. Five players score between 7-16 points per game for the Mustangs, led by 6’6” forward Daton Aubrey (16.3 ppg, 7.1 rpg) and 6’1” guard Drew Harmon (12.4 ppg, 4.1 apg, 3.7 rpg). McDonald County’s 21-5 overall and played Webb City to a two-point loss on the road and lost by eight to Republic at home. The Mustangs beat Aurora at home this past Tuesday night.
3. Bucking the trend. Recent history will be against the winner of this district. Since the 2008-09 season, the winner of this district has lost in the next round (sectionals) to the winner of District 11. On two occasions, including Carthage last year, the winner of this district has had a losing record. But, that may be ready to end this year. District 11 doesn’t have an unbeatable team this year like a 2012 Hillcrest or 2013-14 Republic. Should seeds hold, Webb City’s size and big-game experience (wins over Nixa and Ozark) would give it a good chance to win that sectional game.
OTHER: Class 4 District 10 @ Helias Catholic
Rolla’s quest for a second straight district title won’t come easy. The Bulldogs will likely have to go through the host school and No. 2 seed Helias Catholic in the district finals. Rolla won the regular season meeting, 65-63. The game wasn’t quite as close as the final score indicates as Rolla led most of the way before Helias cut the deficit down in the final minutes. Rolla guard Kobe Wands, who scored 39 in a win over Glendale last Friday, is headed for all-state honors again after this season. He averages a team-high 19 points and 6 assists per game. Rolla’s offense runs through Wands and the Bulldogs have capable shooters surrounding him. Sam Marshall averages 17 points and 5 rebounds, while Logan Short adds 13 points per game for the Bulldogs. If this district was at a neutral site, Rolla would have to be considered a bigger favorite. But home court at district time can cause a lot of weird things to happen. Helias had close wins over Ozark Conference members Camdenton (65-55), Hillcrest (62-59) and Parkview (65-57) and lost to Waynesville (61-58) during the regular season. Guards Sam Husting (16.8 ppg) and Landon Harrison (14.7 ppg) key the Crusaders’ attack.
OTHER: Class 4 District 13 @ Clinton High School
The road is favorable for Bolivar to return to the state tournament and make another Final Four run. The Liberators are the 1-seed in this six-team district. Only Bolivar and 2-seed Nevada have winning records among the field. Nevada’s local games include a 25-point win over Seneca, a seven-point loss to Carthage and an overtime win over El Dorado Springs, who was the 8-seed in the Class 3 District 12 tournament. Nevada also competed in the Carthage Invitational in early December, where it lost to Monett by two, beat Joplin by 17 and Carthage by 13. Simply put, if Bolivar plays up to its standards, the Liberators should take this district. Junior forward Brandon Emmert leads the Liberators, averaging 17.5 points and 8 rebounds per game. The Liberators are as balanced as they come; no player averages more than 11 shot attempts per game. Bryce Krueger (15 ppg, 42 percent from 3), Johnny Scott (11.4 ppg) and Conley Garrison (10 ppg, 4.7 apg) give the Liberators four players averaging double figures.
Class 5 District 11 @ Branson High School
Synopsis: Kickapoo’s out for its third district title in four seasons. The Chiefs take on Central in the semifinals – a team they beat 74-36 in late December – then have another rematch awaiting in the finals. The Chiefs blew out Branson on the road and won a pair of games against Ozark, one of which was a two-point contest. Kickapoo and Ozark played a thrilling district title game last season. Branson-Ozark is the best semifinal matchup among our local Class 4-5 district tournaments. Branson won the regular season meeting, 71-69 at home Feb. 9, behind a career-high 37 points from Branson senior Seth Wood.
1. Hail to the Chiefs. There’s plenty to like about Kickapoo and its starts with the Chiefs’ backcourt and depth. Guards Niekie Thomas-Fontleroy (10.9 ppg, 57 percent field goal percentage), Cameron Davis (13.4 ppg), Isaac Johnson (9.4 ppg, 3.4 apg) and Derrick Roberson (5.6 ppg off the bench) would be go-to stars on a lot of other teams. Between them, they cause problems. The Chiefs average nearly 7 steals and attempt about 19 free throws per game. Teams have a hard time staying in front of the Chiefs on defense, and getting by them on offense. Add in starter Travis Vokolek and reserves Isaac Blakeslee, Hayden Schmitz and Mitch Closser and the Chiefs could field a decent varsity lineup from their bench. Oh, and 6’7” junior forward Jared Ridder (20.3 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 50 3-pointers) isn’t bad either.
2. Pirates’ pursuit. Conference champ Branson exemplifies how the COC-Large race has been this season: hard to gauge and unpredictable game-to-game. Some nights, Branson’s very good (wins over Republic, Webb City, Ozark). Other nights (blowout losses to Nixa and Kickapoo, loss to Central), the Pirates look like a different team. Whatever the case, Branson played well enough when it mattered to win the conference. Seth Wood (15 ppg), Christian Powell (10.5 ppg), and Nick Dapprich (12.1 ppg) give the Pirates three players in double figures. Montana Myer (9.48 ppg, 9 rpg) averages close to a double-double. Branson has four willing perimeter shooters on the court a lot of the time; Powell, Wood, Colby Sutton and Dapprich have all made over 30 3-pointers on the season. Branson hasn’t had many home games this season. Since losing its first two home games to Kickapoo and Glendale, the Pirates have won five straight at home following Tuesday night’s victory against Republic. The Pirates will need home cooking on their side to beat Ozark in the semifinals.
3. Practice what you preach. “Share it and shoot it” is a team motto of Ozark and coach Mark Schweitzer. And it shows in their play. The Tigers field a quality offense (67 ppg) and they share it well (18 assists per game). Five players – Riley Simmons (13.3 ppg), Kyland Newbill (12.0 ppg), Clayton Engel (10.2 ppg), Quinn Nelson (9.9 ppg), and Collin Bottoms (8.3 ppg, 7.0 rpg) – form a balanced scoring attack. Ozark shoots it very well from 3-point range (40 percent) and is also solid at the free throw line (70 percent). If Ozark’s down by one, with possession, with 10 seconds to go against Kickapoo and the district title on the line, I’m not sure who would take the final shot for the Tigers, but at least they’ve got multiple options.
Class 5 District 12 @ Joplin High School
Synopsis: Everyone’s probably looking for a Nixa-Republic rematch here and you can see why. They have the only winning records in this district and the other three teams have 16 or more losses. Republic scored a win over Nixa in a recent meeting, thanks to a career game from Ty Stevens, then struggled in the two immediate games following that. Nixa cruised in this district last year and is seeking its fourth district title in five seasons.
1. Eye of the Tiger. After losing at Branson with a COC-Large title on the line, it’s safe to say no one’s overlooking Republic anymore. I’d listen to the idea that Nixa was caught looking ahead in the first meeting and the Tigers used some ridiculous shooting to build an early lead and ride it out to victory. Republic’s stats aren’t eye popping, but the Tigers are balanced and disciplined. Tristan Ollar (13 ppg, 5.5 rpg) and Treydon Rackley (12 ppg, 6.2 rpg) lead a group that averages about 54 points per game. Republic’s at its best when it has the lead and can control tempo. Four of Republic’s six losses came when it allowed over 60 points. Republic’s only scored over 65 points one time this season, that coming Feb. 22 against Waynesville; this is a group that’s best-suited for a high-40s, low-50s type of final score.
2. Chess match. I’m eager to see what adjustments are made for the second meeting if we see a Nixa-Republic final, such as Nixa coming out of its trademark 2-3 zone and playing Republic man for the entirety of the game. That defensive change helped bring Nixa back in the game on Feb. 12. Or, do the Eagles stay true to form and dare Republic – which has been a so-so 3-point shooting team this season – to match that performance again? In big games like these, it’s hard to bet against the Eagles. Chase Allen (13.1 ppg, 7.0 rpg) was held in check the first time, but Garrett Bacon came up with a big game for the Eagles. Nixa needs to make perimeter shots to open some things up on the inside. The Eagles didn’t shoot all that well the first time. Guard play from the likes of Seth Viebrock, Evan Bergmann and Braeden Combs will go a long way in determining the outcome of this district.
3. Gaining their stripes. Before Nixa drilled Willard by 41 on Feb. 23, I was going to make a case here for Willard potentially playing Nixa to a close outcome next week. I’ll take that score with a grain of salt since these teams knew a rematch was coming next week, but Nixa and its size might just be a bad overall matchup for the Tigers. Willard’s another COC-Large team that’s had an odd season. The Black and White Tigers own wins over the likes of Rogersville and Clever. But, they’ve also struggled at times with blowout losses to Bolivar, Nixa, Branson and Webb City. Willard lost 56-50 at Republic last week in a game that Republic led by one going into the fourth quarter. Young, predominantly senior-less teams like Willard are unpredictable in districts. Either they’ve made a season’s worth improvements and are ready to show in districts that they’ll be a contender next season, or they’re content with the season and ready for it to end since the gang’s all coming back. With junior Houston Johnson recently returning to action, Willard’s shaping up to have a nice returning lineup. Sophomore Kenny Chambers (14.6 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 2.4 apg, 2.4 spg), sophomore Kobe Holloman (7.8 ppg) and junior Sam Bird (8.8 ppg) will be varsity veterans by this time next season.
OTHER: Class 5 District 10 @ Lebanon High School
Jeff City’s the team that jumps out to you here, but a close look at the Jays’ resume indicates this district is fairly wide open. In a Feb. 16 meeting at Lebanon, Jefferson City actually trailed a 6-20 Lebanon by six at halftime before taking over in the second half. Lebanon only has six wins but two of those came in its final two regular season games: at Parkview and at home against Camdenton. The Yellowjackets probably like their chances in a rematch. Jeff City’s notable local games include a six-point win over Willard, a 12-point win over Waynesville, a 15-point win over Strafford and a nine-point loss to Webb City. Waynesville won five straight games to start February – including a 77-76 2-OT win over Class 3 Whitfield (20-5 overall) and a road win at West Plains – but has struggled since then. The Tigers had lost three straight going into their regular season finale Thursday at home against Hillcrest. Waynesville owns a 70-51 win on Feb. 9 over its first-round opponent, Camdenton. Dyllan Decker has had a very good, all-conference type of season for the Lakers, averaging about 15 points and 7 rebounds per game. Brady Kempf (12.2 ppg), Braden Demark (11.3 ppg) and Hunter Hood (9.2 ppg) round out Camdenton’s main scoring.
Momentum
How important is it to have your team playing well heading into districts? Just for fun, let’s take a look at how local Class 4-5 district champs from the past two seasons fared in their final five regular season games.
2015 Class 4 District 10 champ: Rolla, 5-0
2015 Class 4 District 11 champ: Hillcrest, 2-3
2015 Class 4 District 12 champ: Carthage, 0-5
2015 Class 4 District 13 champ: Bolivar, 5-0
2015 Class 5 District 10 champ: Jefferson City, 4-1
2015 Class 5 District 11 champ: Kickapoo, 4-1
2015 Class 5 District 12 champ: Nixa, 5-0
2014 Class 4 District 10 champ: Marshfield, 5-0
2014 Class 4 District 11 champ: Republic, 3-2
2014 Class 4 District 12 champ: Carl Junction, 4-1
2014 Class 5 District 10 champ: Waynesville, 4-1
2014 Class 5 District 11 champ: Nixa, 4-1
2014 Class 5 District 12 champ: Willard, 4-1
Summary: It helps to be playing well, but if you’re in Class 4, anything can happen.
