It’s now the big schools turn for win-or-go-home basketball. There are several top-heavy districts, but the Class 4 and Class 5 state champions are likely coming from this crop of teams. Here’s what you should know about this week of games.
Class 4
To put it nicely, Class 4 is a beautiful mess. This is an area where the Ozarks can send a pair of teams to the Final Four should Bolivar make a run through Kansas City. Where it gets tricky are the area’s districts. There are legitimately 10 teams capable of making Final Four runs with no district really having anyone that is untouchable.
District 10
This is really kind of a catch all district between Jefferson City and Springfield. Helias Catholic will host and is the top seed, with Osage, Salem, Marshfield, Eldon and Rolla rounding out the order. Everyone talks about districts 11 and 12, but this one is nearly as strong. Only Rolla is below .500 everyone else has won at least 13 games with Osage and Salem winning 20 each and earning state-rankings. It will be fun to see how this one plays out and how much the strength of schedule for each program figures into the equation.
Favorite(s): Helias & Osage – I’ll lump them in together for time sake. Helias (14-10) beat Osage 51-48 on Dec. 8 which is the reason the 20-5 Lady Indians didn’t get the top seed. There’s one main difference between the two; Helias played mostly Class 4 and 5 schools, while Osage played a lot of Class 3 teams. Against local teams, Helias lost to Camdenton (64-55) and that’s the only real barometer game against a local team. They also lost to Hickman, Rock Bridge and Jeff City, teams that have been good but took loses against area teams. Osage beat Class 3 St. James, which may be their best win, and also beat Class 2 Crocker. Skyline handed Osage a 51-39 loss on Feb. 11.
Darkhorse: Marshfield – The Lady Jays are just two years removed from making a Final Four run and this team has a path is favorable. It seems like 6-foot senior Peyton Greenlee has been wearing a Marshfield jersey for a decade, but this year her and the Lady Jays are playing much faster than in previous years. Marshfield is 7-1 when scoring at least 60 points. This is the same team that beat Strafford just a month ago and played a brutal schedule with Kickapoo, Branson, Republic, Lebanon and Waynesville. Shelly Jones has a knack for getting her teams to play inspired basketball this time of year and Greenlee is capable of going off on any given night and senior point guard Allie Owens isn’t a stranger to district basketball. The Lady Jays have won seven of 11 entering district play; this is a team you don’t want to play.
Steph Curry Alert: Payton Curley, Salem – No one in the district won more games than Salem and despite not losing to any district opponents the Lady Tigers received the 3-seed. They play in a predominantly Class 2 and 3 conference, but Jake Reardon’s team will have a chance to earn Class 4 respect this week and it all starts with Curley. She’s a 5-foot-10 combo guard that’s a gifted scorer (20.2 PPG) but also has the ability to get others involved. Salem is at its best when she’s doing both, racking up a 7-1 record when Curley hands out at least four assists with the lone loss coming to a Gainesville team that is one of the best in Missouri regardless of class. With that being said, Salem is 12-1 when Curley scores at least 20. There’s a lot on her shoulders, but it comes with the territory when you’re this talented. With the help of 6-foot-3 sophomore Baylee Bilyeu, this team is a sleeper to make a run.
District 11
After playing its first round games on Saturday, we are already down to the semifinals here and it’s anyone’s guess as to who wins this thing. All four teams remaining (West Plains, Hillcrest, Rogersville, Aurora) are above .500 and all four have good guard play. Rogersville is the host, which could end up being the difference.
Favorite: West Plains – The Lady Zizzers have to be the favorite. Not only is West Plains the only team to win this district while Republic was still in it, but they also own wins over Hillcrest and Rogersville. The outside perception is that the program is down, as its six straight 20-win season streak could be in jeopardy, but this is still one of the premier programs in the Ozarks. West Plains has won eight of 11 since losing back-to-back games to Kickapoo and Camdenton and those three losses came by a total of nine points (Carl Junction by 1, Lebanon by 2, Waynesville by 6). West Plains has also become accustomed to not playing at home, which is a nice attribute to have at this time of the year. If you want to jump off the bandwagon feel free, but this is yet another Scott Womack team that will have an opportunity to make a deep run.
Challenger: Rogersville – Denny McHenry took over a program that had three consecutive losing seasons and has immediately made it relevant. The Lady Cats won their first conference championship in three decades this year and don’t seem like they are ready to stop now. Rogersville has won seven of its last nine with the two losses coming to Strafford and Republic by a total of 11 points; those two could be state champs this time next month. The crazy part is Log-Rog is 9-5 since the turn of the year and all five losses have been by seven points or less, with three coming by just one possession. A key to just how far this Rogersville team can go in the play of junior forward Sarah Jordan. She leads the Lady Cats in scoring (13.6 PPG) and the team is 8-2 when she scores at least 15. It is also worth noting that Rogersville is 5-6 at home this year after going 9-1 last year.
Darkhorse: Hillcrest – It seems like Hillcrest is always a darkhorse. First, how about the job Jenni Hopkins has done since losing All-Everything guard Kelsie Cleeton? The Lady Hornets have battled some consistency issues, but here they are again with a chance to make a run. Hillcrest went on the road to beat Camdenton and Aurora in the final week of the season and stayed hot to open districts by nearly turbo clocking Glendale. Kaycie Gerald is one of the best guards in the Ozarks and Hopkins is as good as anyone at anyone at letting her guards operate in space. It will be interesting to see if this team can remain hot, especially since Hillcrest has won three of its last five meetings with West Plains.
Major Key Alert: Payton Richards & Elle Williams, West Plains – The Lady Zizzers will be a top five program in the state next year because of these two. Both have been playing varsity minutes since their freshman year and both are amongst the best in the Ozarks at their respective positions. Richards is a Drury commit and the lefty is the definition of gritty point guard. The 5-foot-7 guard is averaging career-highs in points (15.3 PPG), rebounds (3.7 RPG) and steals (2.7 SPG), while still handing out four assists a night. West Plains is 8-1 when she finishes with at least 15 points and four assists. It’s not always easy to find that scoring/facilitating balance, but West Plains is at its best when she has it. Williams exploded onto the scene last year as a sophomore, jumping from 1.6 PPG and 1.5 RPG to 11 PPG and 6.5 RPG. She’s continued that this year (13.5 PPG, 7 RPG) and the Lady Zizzers are a perfect 5-0 when she double-doubles.
Steph Curry Alert: Larissa Pyle-Moore, Aurora – She once tweeted about wanting a 3-point shootout for girls… and then she went out and broke the single-game school record for 3s (7) less than a month later. Aurora was the favorite to win this district until Emily Parker (22.6 PPG) tore her ACL; tough blow because Parker was KILLING it and was well on her way to a 2,000-point career. Aurora has remained competitive even despite the injury with Pyle-Moore elevating her level. The junior point guard is averaging 17.1 PPG, 4.6 APG and 3.7 SPG. The biggest factor is her ability to shoot the 3 efficiently. She’s hit 49 this season at a 41% clip and had 20 points against Carl Junction last month, helping Aurora hang with one of the best Class 4 teams in the state. Kaylee Huffman and Morgan Montgomery have also stepped up for Aurora, so too has sophomore Cheyanne Eutsler. This team is still capable of winning a district championship.
District 12
Carl Junction has been one of the best teams in the state this year. The Lady Bulldogs won the Big 8 and their two losses came to Republic and California. This district certainly seems like it’s poised to go home with Carl Junction. But Carthage is also a capable 2-seed and the district host.
Favorite: Carl Junction – Well, Carl Junction went 7-0 against district opponents, beating all five of the opposing teams. Really, that’s just the theme for Carl Junction’s season overall. CJ enters districts with an eight-game winning streak and none of those wins has come by less than 10 points. They often get knocked for their strength of schedule, but this team still holds wins over Branson, Nixa and West Plains; let’s not forget they led Republic by six with two minutes to play. And moving forward Brad Shorter will have two things going for him; his overall team defense and Abby Vogt. The Lady Bulldogs get after people with their length and athleticism and that has caused a ton of problems for opponents. Carl Junction has held 20 of its 25 opponents to 40 points or less with Branson, Republic, East Newton, Nixa and West Plains being the outlier. Defense wins games this time of year. Vogt is the other major factor. She’s a 6-foot junior without a real position and there’s not really anything on the court she can’t do (14.2 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 2.6 APG, 2.9 SPG, 1 BPG). She comes from a family of hoopers and she might end up being the best of the bunch.
Darkhorse: Webb City – I’m not sure there is a real challenger in the district, but I think Webb City has the best shot. The Lady Cards have several athletes and that Webb City mindset seems to be contagious across the entire athletic program. There hasn’t been much consistency this season, but the good has been at a high enough level that a potential upset of Carl Junction isn’t that far-fetched. Lexey Kneib (12.4 PPG, 2.2 SPG) is as tough as nails. Webb City is playing its best when they have shots and not turnovers on the offensive end. If they take care of the basketball then they will get another shot to see Carl Junction in the district championship.
District 13
This is again a unique situation as Bolivar is the only local team in this district. The Lady Liberators again have the top seed and, again, I would be shocked if they didn’t win the district. Really it has been a tale of two teams this year. Good Bolivar has beaten Rock Bridge and St. Charles, while losing to teams like Camdenton, West Plains, Branson and Lebanon by eight or less. I refuse to believe that this team isn’t better than its 11-13 record. Senior Kylie Rothdiener (17.9 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 3 APG) has been nails all season long, while classmates Meleah Francka (10.6 PPG, 5 RPG, 3.8 APG) and Aleena Derossett (8.1 PPG) are two of the best shooters in the area. I think the key is sophomore Michelle Gabani. Rarely will you hear me say that someone averaging 11.7 PPG and 10.3 RPG is capable of doing more, but Gabani is that kind of talent. She’s 5-foot-10 with guard skills and when she plays the point forward role for Bolivar, helping to create offense for herself and others, this team is capable of playing with anyone. She had a 20-13-10 triple-double in a win against Buffalo earlier this month and while that line is ridiculous, I wouldn’t say it has to be an anomaly. She’s in that Casey Garrison mold and an aggressive, engaged Gabani could result in Bolivar making a return trip to Columbia.
Class 5
No disrespect, but Class 5 in Missouri belongs Republic and Kickapoo… and then everyone else. As of now, it seems like these two are destined to meet in sectionals again with the winner being the favorite to win the state championship. But, outside of those two are several hot teams capable of making runs.
District 10
This is the most balanced Class 5 district in Missouri. There are only four teams, but all four have at least 16 wins. Each team has at least one D-2 or better commit and everyone is capable of winning the district. Last year the top seeds, Jeff City and Lebanon, each lost in the first round and the winner was a Camdenton team that entered as the 4-seed and below .500. This year the Lady Lakers grabbed the top seed, with Jeff City, Lebanon and Waynesville going 2-4. Between the styles, talent and storylines, this will be the most intriguing district in the area for large-class girls.
Favorite: Camdenton – The Lady Lakers got the top seed because they have wins over Lebanon and Waynesville. Jeff City probably would have gotten it if not for the loss to Nixa. Regardless, Camdenton has several impressive wins with Skyline, West Plains and Helias Catholic and aside from Hillcrest, Camdenton has nothing but quality losses (Republic, Hickman, Kickapoo, Branson and Pickerington Central). Staci Caffey has a pair of college guards in Bailey Rezabek (SBU) and Sophie Shore (Evangel), as well as several players that are extremely dangerous in their roles *insert Alyssa Ripley here*. This is a team that has scored 60 or more 16 times this year. Offense will never be a problem, but getting stops consistently on the defensive end will be the difference in back-to-back district titles and going home in the first round.
Challenger: Jeff City – The Lady Jays are one of the more dangerous teams in Class 5. They own wins over Hickman, Rock Bridge, Webster Groves and McCluer North. Their good is very good and 6-foot Southern Illinois signee Nicole Martin is one of the best bigs in Missouri. She also has a talented supporting cast, including all-state guard Megan Foster. This team might be the most talented in the district and went toe-to-toe with Kickapoo earlier in the season.
Steph Curry Alert: Kallie Bildner, Waynesville – What can you say about Bildner that hasn’t been said about Anthony Davis? She’s an absolute monster and no one has had an answer for her. She’s averaging 25.2 PPG and 13 RPG and hasn’t been shy about feeding some of the area’s best teams a spoonful of buckets. Kickapoo got 27, Camdenton got 25 points and 24 rebounds, Hickman got 34, Republic got 27 and poor Lutheran South got 37 points and 20 rebounds; no one has been exempt from catching some work. The 6-foot-2 senior is good enough to push Waynesville to another run and her supporting cast, has been the best of her career. Ra’Shaune Stone (13.8 PPG) and Nina Kizzee (9.2 PPG) have stepped up as scorers, Kiara Shoulders (7.1 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 4.8 APG) and Ashton Pilz (7.5 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 3 APG) have done a little bit of everything for Waynesville. They’ve beaten Hickman, they’ve beaten West Plains and they’ve given Kickapoo and Republic two of their most competitive games of the season. This will be a scary team from here on out.
Steph Curry Alert (Part 2): Kelsey Winfrey, Lebanon – On Jan. 7 I saw Kickapoo drill Lebanon and thought maybe the Lady Jackets will be ready to hang next year. Since then Lebanon has won 12 of 14 with the two losses coming to Class 5 No. 8 Francis Howell by seven and Camdenton. In that span Lebanon also beat Fair Grove, West Plains and previously Class 5 No. 1 Parkway North. The entire roster is contributing and Lebanon has been more committed on the defensive end, but Winfrey (21 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 4.6 SPG, 3.4 APG, 1 BPG) has also been in savage mode since that Kickapoo game. Honestly, she probably shouldn’t have suited up against the Lady Chiefs due to illness, but she did and was held scoreless. Since then she’s scored 20 or more in 11 of those 14 games, with two of the games she didn’t reach 20 being turbo-clock wins. She’s also had four double-doubles and a triple-double since then. The Mizzou commit is playing at an elite level and not many teams have someone that can physically match the 5-foot-8 junior guard. She’s been more committed to getting to the rim/foul line this year and that has put even more pressure on opposing guards. Lebanon isn’t huge, but has a stable of talented and athletic guards even outside of Winfrey. Like I always say, good guards win games in March.
District 11
With all due respect to everyone else in this district, Kickapoo is just better. To put it bluntly, Kickapoo is still the most talented team in Missouri from top to bottom. Talent doesn’t always win games, but Lady Chiefs have put it together after a sluggish start. Kickapoo has won 15 straight with each win coming by at least 16 points. And that’s just the start of how dominant they’ve been. Only two of those opponents (Hillcrest and Waynesville) have scored more than 45 points. During that span Kickapoo is averaging 76 PPG with five games of at least 80 points. I could talk about each kid individually, but that would take forever considering the amount of players contributing. Kickapoo is deep, with kids that can score, defend and facilitate and in some cases do all three. They haven’t been the same since the Pink and White and it seems like they reeeeeeeaaallllllyyyyyy want a rematch with Republic.
Challenger: Branson – This is one team on a very short list capable of beating Kickapoo. The first meeting didn’t go too well (79-34), but I don’t think the gap is truly that wide. Branson has four losses all season (Kickapoo, Republic, Carl Junction and Strafford) and all four teams are arguably the best in their class and definitely amongst the best in Missouri. Branson will have to take care of the basketball because guarding Kickapoo in the open floor is nearly impossible. Keeping them out of transition will slow the tempo of the game and the fewer possessions there are the more difficult it is to pull away. Kip Bough does have two things going for him. He is a master of the zone defense and the likelihood of a high school team not shooting the lights our certainly exists. The other plus is his backcourt; senior C of O signee Ashley Forrest and junior Harding commit Amanda Kearney. They are big, physical guards with high basketball IQ. Forrest (13 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 5.2 APG, 3.2 SPG) literally does everything and Kearney (24 PPG, 4 RPG, 3 SPG) is one of the most gifted scorers in the Ozarks. In a normal year, without superhuman versions of Kickapoo and Republic, this Branson team is one that would compete for a state championship. It is still possible, but they’ll have to play extremely well.
District 12
Republic hasn’t been quite as dominant as Kickapoo, but that’s really splitting hairs at this point. The Lady Tigers have won 15 straight as well, including wins over West Plains, Rock Bridge, Branson and Rogersville. RepMo ran unblemished through the COC Large and let’s not forget this team beat Kickapoo head-to-head on Dec. 21. The biggest difference between Kickapoo and Republic is the fact that the Lady Chiefs’ athleticism makes it difficult for most people to compete physically. Because Republic isn’t as athletic and isn’t overly big, it makes it easier for teams to compete. With that being said, only Crane has figured out how to beat them. Kirkwood couldn’t, neither could Carl Junction. Those are two teams that should end up in Columbia. Republic continues to be underrated defensively as well. Yes, the Lady Tigers can shoot the garbage out of the basketball (like seriously it's not fair), but Rock Bridge and Buffalo are the only teams to score more than 50 points in 2016. Even though Republic won the first meeting against Kickapoo, I get the feeling that this team would feel much better about winning a state championship if they had to go through Kickapoo.
Challenger: Nixa – This is one of the scariest teams in the Ozarks because on a given night there is no telling which team could show up. Keep in mind, the same team that owns wins over Hickman, Jefferson City, Rock Bridge and St. James also has losses to Glendale and Clever. Part of the inconsistency comes because of the amount of inexperience and/or young kids that Jenny Perryman is playing. This is another team that struggles to score in stretches, but they are also capable of putting the clamps on opponents. The only teams to score more than 51 points in a game against Nixa since the start of the New Year is Branson, Republic and Carl Junction. Shelby Ewing, Kayla Goss and a crop of youngsters have grown since the start of the year, but is it enough to hang with Republic?
