The Missouri Valley Conference Presidents Council unanimously voted to add Valparaiso on Tuesday.
It will be the only addition at least until next March. It is a good first step to resurrecting the Valley, but be assured it is just that, a first step.
The Missouri Valley is a Men’s Basketball Conference first. That is just the way it is. Clif Smart confirmed as much in a press conference on Tuesday. None of the members play FBS football, so the big draw financially for every institution is the basketball teams.
Valparaiso is an addition that should have been made in lieu of Loyola back in 2014 in my opinion. They are not a big name nor are they in a big TV market, but what they are is good at men’s basketball. That is where this all starts.
Every time a Valley team plays in the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament they get a “unit” for each game they played that comes from what is called the basketball fund. This year that unit was worth $1.7 million. Since the Wichita State Shockers played two games that is $3.4 million dollars. The qualifying team gets the equivalent of half of a unit ($850,000 this year) to offset travel costs. The rest is split among the Valley schools equally. Wichita State forfeited its shares by leaving, but if the Shockers would have stayed those units would pay $255,000 to Missouri State and others. That is no small amount in trying financial times.
You can read more in-depth about those units here: http://herosports.com/ncaa-tournament/how-much-money-ncaa-tournament-earned-conference-2017-basketball-fund-a7a7
Make no mistake; NCAA units were the big loss in the Shockers’ move to the AAC and Creighton’s departure prior to that. In a landscape where Missouri State is cutting programs amidst budget cuts at all levels of the University, these units can provide a lifeline for the athletic department.
For an even closer look at the importance of those units, read this article from 2014 by the Washington Post: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/sports/ncaa-money/
The Power 5 conferences (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac 12 and SEC) relied on NCAA Tournament units for 10 percent or less of their total revenue. The Missouri Valley that year got 36% of its $8.8 million revenue from the basketball fund.
The American, the conference the Shockers left for, got $28.7 million from the basketball fund that year. It was admittedly a great year and likely high-water mark for the American Athletic Conference, but it helps to illustrate the potential.
Valparaiso was the best option to help gain units and make money. Period.
Over the last eight years, here is how the RPI of Valparaiso has stacked up:
Here is the average RPI of the current Valley members and Wichita State over that same time frame according to WarrenNolan.com:
In terms of success in the RPI over the last decade, Valparaiso is the second best team to just Northern Iowa in the new Valley. That is a great addition.
Obviously losing that average RPI of 26 from Wichita State hurts, but fixing that gap starts in one place and that is with Missouri Valley scheduling.
Here is the average Non-Conference strength of schedule for Valley teams since 2008 according to KenPom.com along with Conference RPI ratings at the bottom:
Only Northern Iowa and Wichita State had a consistent top 150 non-conference schedule. Yes, Northern Iowa gets helped by playing Iowa State and Iowa every year, but it goes beyond that.
Valley coaches are scheduling not to get fired instead of to build strong resumes by hoping that hanging a 15 or 20 in the win column will save their jobs even though those wins are coming against some of the worst teams in college basketball.
They should be scheduling to try and make the NCAA Tournament, and putting teams outside of the Top 250 on the RPI on your schedule is a death blow to your chances for an at large bid in the NCAA Tournament.
The common argument involves saying something along the lines of “Power 5’s won’t play us so we have no chance”.
Illinois State coach Dan Muller sent out a tweet begging for a home and home with a Power 5 school back in April when his team was left out of the tournament.
ACC BIG 10 BIG 12 SEC PAC 12 BIG EAST. It’s me again. Looking 4 home & home next year. Pls call me 4 chance 4 QUALITY road win, top 33 RPI pic.twitter.com/zYAZpR3kJn
— Dan Muller (@DanMuller) March 13, 2017
Power 5’s are not giving Valley teams a home-and-home until you are a consistent national power on the level of Gonzaga or Wichita State. There is little to no incentive for them to do it. Move on.
There are plenty of other teams every year in the Top 200 of the RPI that are not Power 5 schools. Get creative with mutually beneficial games.
Fresno State has been 77, 64 and 184 in the RPI the last three years. UC-Irvine has been 130, 65, 96 in the RPI over that time frame. Monmouth has been 52, 60 and 178.
I can go on.
The RPI doesn’t care if what your jersey says. It is a metric, albeit an antiquated one, that the committee relies on.
Alabama has been 82, 79, 82 in the RPI over the last three years. Valpo would have done more for a non-conference boost than the Crimson Tide. You just have to be willing to look beyond the easy solution and playing victim.
Not all of these teams have to say yes to home-and-home series, just eight to 10 of them.
Keith Guttin is proving what can be done with smart scheduling for the baseball team. I am aware baseball and basketball are two different animals. One baseball loss does not equal one basketball loss.
Guttin has the Bears on the cusp of hosting an NCAA Regional this season despite the Valley being bad at baseball.
The average RPI of the Bears non-conference opponents in baseball is 99 as of Monday. The average RPI of Valley opponents will be 176. Bears baseball does benefit by getting games with Mizzou, Arkansas and Kansas, but that is not the only reason for RPI success.
If you remove the Power 5 schools from the non-conference schedule you end up with an average RPI of 114 for those teams. New Mexico, McNeese State and Rhode Island may not be flashy names, but what they are is Top 50 in the RPI for baseball. Those games are mutually beneficial for all programs involved.
I want to see Missouri State basketball lead the way with a strong schedule this year. They are going to be the prohibitive favorites with much of their team back. Schedule like it.
Alabama A&M and Chicago State are not cutting it. Scheduling Fontbonne and calling it a regular season game was indefensible. Even the Griffins thought it was an exhibition game.
If teams like that show up on Missouri State and the rest of the Valley’s schedules, the regular season basically doesn’t matter. At that point, the Valley is just another one-bid league and the only thing that really matters is three or four games in St. Louis in early March.
Missouri State President Clif Smart said the following at a Tuesday press conference:
“Over the course of time the Valley has lots of schools in and out and we always have been able to be competitive. It is up to us now to step up and be the dominant school. It is up to Illinois State or Northern Iowa to step up to be the dominant school. Those three schools have a history of winning, have a history of having good coaching staffs, and have history of having good attendance and excitement in their communities. There is not any reason we can’t lead resurgence in the Valley. Missouri State wants to be at the head of that and be a part of that. We expect to be picked at the top of the league, and we expect to be at the top of the league next year and consistently thereafter.”
More teams may be coming to help the Valley in 2018-19, but restoring the conference to its former glory requires a commitment from the current schools to schedule better and smarter. I hope Missouri State leads the charge as Smart indicated he wants the Bears to do.
